Polish property market and planning regulations

With the UK (or whatever it will be called should the Scots decide to go alone) showing double digit rises in property values is the same about to happen in Poland?

Theoretically property values should be rising in Poland yet this has not as yet happened. Of course one reason is that the banks remain highly cautious about property based lending. And this is no bad thing as Poland was sheltered from the more abrupt value falls seen particulalry in the US, UK, Spain and Ireland. The boom there has been led by what in retrospect can be seen as irresponsable lending. Logic would dictate that with continued economic growth in Poland demand should be building up nicely. And indeed it is but is matched by supply.

The (lack of) Polish planning regulations and in particular agricultural zoneĀ and brown field developments ensure that it will be some considerable time before future supply, both of commercial and domestic property, can be predicted with any degree of accuracy. Whilst the building permission process is still cumbersome and not particularly transparent there would appear to be few constraints on type of development, zoning and density of development. Which all conspires against development of long term property investment and rational lending policy by the banks.

But then on the positive side a low underlying land value to building cost ratio ensured that falls in value caused by the global economic crisis were far less dramatic than elsewhere and add a further reason why values are not rising.